What nobody wants to hear, but everyone needs to know

What nobody wants to hear, but everyone needs to know

Eric R. Pianka
I have two grandchildren and I want them to inherit a stable Earth. But I fear for them. Humans have overpopulated the Earth and in the process have created an ideal nutritional substrate on which bacteria and viruses (microbes) will grow and prosper. We are behaving like bacteria growing on an agar plate, flourishing until natural limits are reached or until another microbe colonizes and takes over, using them as their resource. In addition to our extremely high population density, we are social and mobile, exactly the conditions that favor growth and spread of pathogenic (disease-causing) microbes. I believe it is only a matter of time until microbes once again assert control over our population, since we are unwilling to control it ourselves. This idea has been espoused by ecologists for at least four decades and is nothing new. People just don't want to hear it.

Population crashes caused by disease have happened many times in the past. In the 1330s bubonic plague killed one third of the people in Europe's crowded cities. Smallpox and measles decimated Native Americans when Europeans transported them to the new world. HIV is a relatively new disease wreaking havoc in Africa and Asia. Another population crash is inevitable, but the next one will probably be world-wide.

People think unrealistically because they have lost touch with the natural world. Many people today do not really know where and how our food is produced, and on what our life support systems are based. As we continue paving over natural habitats, many think that we can disrupt and despoil the environment indefinitely. We have already taken half of this planet's land surface. Per capita shares of all the things that really matter (air, food, soil, and water) are continuously falling. Our economic system is based on the principle of a chain letter: growth, growth, and more growth. Such runaway growth only expands a bubble that cannot be sustained in a finite world. We are running out of virtually everything from oil, food and land to clean air and water (see also sewage).

Some politicians, economists, and corporations want us to believe that technology will come to our rescue. But we have a false sense of security if we think that science can respond quickly enough to minimize threats from emerging diseases. Microbes have such short lifecycles that they can evolve exceedingly fast, much faster than we can respond to them. Many bacteria have evolved resistance to most antibiotics, and viruses are resistant to just about anything. Defense always lags behind offense. So far, modern humans have just been lucky. A reactive approach to problems isn't enough, we also need to be proactive and anticipate problems before they become too severe to keep them from getting out of control. Many people believe that Earth and all its resources exist solely for human benefit and consumption, this is anthropocentrism. We should allow the millions of other denizens of this Earth some space to live -- they evolved here just as we did and have a right to this planet, too.

I have sometimes been labelled a pessimist, other times a misanthrope. In fact, I am neither. I am a stanch realist who refuses to enter into the widespread prevalent state of denial. My students sometimes ask me for optimism. All I can offer is that there is still a lot of beauty on this Earth -- get out and enjoy it while it lasts! Carl Sagan talked about "the last perfect day on Earth." Truth is, I adore people who think, but I am greatly saddened by those who are anthropocentric and self-centered. What a sad life such people must lead, merely existing, without living up to their full potential as human beings! They don't even understand how truly special humans really are! Many reject Darwin's concept of natural selection outright, when they could understand so much more about the entire world around them if they'd only apply themselves. Tragic, indeed. It brings to mind Lord Balfour's 1895 assertion that when we finally do go extinct "matter will know itself no longer!" This was over a Century ago, and here we are, still struggling around in the dark, in a state of arrogant ignorance! It's downright pitiful.

For the first and only time in the 3.5 billion year history of life on Earth, a product of natural selection has evolved intelligence enough to understand the very process of evolution itself. Moreover, we have developed culture and a vast body of knowledge, including an understanding of thermodynamics. Humans could have been real stewards of planet Earth. Instead, we are raping and pillaging the planet and unwisely destroying prospects for our own descendents. They represent our afterlife -- shouldn't we try harder to save the planet for their enjoyment?

Despite all our problems and woes, a great deal of beauty remains in parts of this planet. However, anthropogenic activities are rapidly destroying all natural ecosystems as well as our spaceship's fragile life support systems.

Earth could be restored to a more pristine state by human actions and ingenuity. If we were to become proactive now, the planet could still be preserved for millennia to come and be enjoyed by all its many inhabitants, including future generations of humans. However, overcoming overpopulation and getting past Hubbert's peak oil and this worldwide recession/depression will not be easy. We are going to have to make some tough decisions now and live extremely frugally if we want civilizations and humanity to have any chance of enduring long into the future. Failure to take action now could well result in our extinction or near extinction as well as the loss of our civilizations, cultures, and human knowledge. The very future of humanity itself is at stake!

First, and foremost, we must get out of denial and recognize that Earth simply cannot support many billions of people, at least not in the lifestyles we would all like to live. There is a trade off between quantity and quality. This planet might be able to support perhaps as many as half a billion people who could live a sustainable life in relative comfort. Human populations must be greatly diminished, and as quickly as possible to limit further environmental damage. This would protect our vulnerable commons, i.e., the atmosphere and world oceans, from further pollution and over fishing. Wildlife everywhere would bounce back and we would no longer need conservation biology or "wildlife management" (the latter discipline is rather a joke, considering our inability to manage our own population!) It is high time that we began to manage human populations. If we continue to refuse to regulate our own numbers, microbes will do it for us, and that certainly won't be much fun. I have never suggested eugenics, merely stated that human populations are too large and will be reduced by microbes if we don't have the will to control our own population. Note: I am not advocating slaughter, merely stating that many of us will have to die of 'natural' causes. I hope you can see through all the lies, vilification, misinformation and actual slander about me that has been promulgated by ID freaks and conspiracy theorist fools.

I do not bear any ill will toward people. However, I am convinced that the world, including all humanity, WOULD clearly be much better off without so many of us. Simply stopping the destruction of rainforests would help mediate some current planetary ills, including the release of previously unknown pathogens. The ancient Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times" comes to mind -- we are living in one of the most interesting times humans have ever experienced. For example, consider the manifold effects of global warming. We need to make a transition to a sustainable world. If we don't, nature is going to do it for us in ways of her own choosing. By definition, these ways will not be ours and they won't be much fun. Think about that.

If you don't believe me, read Lester Brown's "Outgrowing the Earth," Richard Heinberg's "The Party's Over," Sean Nee's one page commentary "The Great Chain of Being" in Nature (2005, vol. 435:page 429), Tim Flannery's " The Future Eaters ," and/or Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, and Steel."